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Jef Caers
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Modeling Uncertainty in the Earth Sciences highlights the various issues, techniques and practical modeling tools available for modeling the uncertainty of complex Earth systems and the impact that it has on practical situations. The aim of the book is to provide an introductory overview which covers a broad range of tried-and-tested tools. Descriptions of concepts, philosophies, challenges, methodologies and workflows give the reader an understanding of the best way to make decisions under uncertainty for Earth Science problems. The book covers key issues such as: Spatial and time aspect; large complexity and dimensionality; computation power; costs of 'engineering' the Earth; uncertainty in the modeling and decision process. Focusing on reliable and practical methods this book provides an invaluable primer for the complex area of decision making with uncertainty in the Earth Sciences.
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Multiple-point Geostatistics
Jef Caers, Grégoire Mariethoz
- Wiley-blackwell
- 16 Octobre 2014
- 9781118662939
This book provides a comprehensive introduction to multiple-point geostatistics, where spatial continuity is described using training images. Multiple-point geostatistics aims at bridging the gap between physical modelling/realism and spatio-temporal stochastic modelling. The book provides an overview of this new field in three parts. Part I presents a conceptual comparison between traditional random function theory and stochastic modelling based on training images, where random function theory is not always used. Part II covers in detail various algorithms and methodologies starting from basic building blocks in statistical science and computer science. Concepts such as non-stationary and multi-variate modeling, consistency between data and model, the construction of training images and inverse modelling are treated. Part III covers three example application areas, namely, reservoir modelling, mineral resources modelling and climate model downscaling. This book will be an invaluable reference for students, researchers and practitioners of all areas of the Earth Sciences where forecasting based on spatio-temporal data is performed.
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Quantifying Uncertainty in Subsurface Systems
Jef Caers, Lewis Li, Ca©Line Scheidt
- American geophysical union
- 27 Avril 2018
- 9781119325871
Under the Earth's surface is a rich array of geological resources, many with potential use to humankind. However, extracting and harnessing them comes with enormous uncertainties, high costs, and considerable risks. The valuation of subsurface resources involves assessing discordant factors to produce a decision model that is functional and sustainable. This volume provides real-world examples relating to oilfields, geothermal systems, contaminated sites, and aquifer recharge. Volume highlights include: A multi-disciplinary treatment of uncertainty quantification Case studies with actual data that will appeal to methodology developers A Bayesian evidential learning framework that reduces computation and modeling time Quantifying Uncertainty in Subsurface Systems is a multidisciplinary volume that brings together five major fields: information science, decision science, geosciences, data science and computer science. It will appeal to both students and practitioners, and be a valuable resource for geoscientists, engineers and applied mathematicians. Read the Editors' Vox: https://eos.org/editors-vox/quantifying-uncertainty-about-earths-resources
Reviews, The Leading Edge, SEG, May 2020
The subsurface medium created by geologic processes is not always well understood. The data we collect in an attempt to characterize the subsurface can be incomplete and inaccurate. However, if we understand the uncertainty of our data and the models we generate from them, we can make better decisions regarding the management of subsurface resources. Modeling and managing subsurface resources, and properly characterizing and understanding the uncertainties, requires the integration of a variety of scientific and engineering disciplines. Five case studies are outlined in the introductory chapter, which are used to demonstrate various methods throughout the book. The second chapter introduces the basic notions in decision analysis. Uncertainty quantification is only relevant within the decision framework used. Models alone do not quantify uncertainty, but do allow the determination of key variables that influence models and decisions. Next, an overview of the various data science methods relevant to uncertainty quantification in the subsurface is provided. Sensitivity analysis is then covered, specifically Monte Carlo-based sensitivity analysis. The next three chapters develop the Bayesian approach to uncertainty quantification, and this is the focus of the book. All of this is brought together in Chapter 8, which describes a solution regarding quantifying the uncertainties for each of the problems presented in the first chapter. The authors admit that it is not the only solution. No single solution fits all problems of uncertainty quantification. The results in this chapter allow the reader to see the previously described methods applied and how choices influence models and decisions. The final two chapters discuss various software components necessary to implement the strategies presented in the book and challenges faced in the future of uncertainty quantification. The book uses a number of relevant subsurface problems to explore the various aspects of uncertainty quantification. Understanding uncertainty, and how it affects modeling and decision outcomes, is not always straightforward. However, it is necessary in order to make good, consistent decisions. The book is not an easy read. Some portions require good mathematical understanding of the underlying principles. However, the book is well documented and organized. I would say that is not a good book for a beginner, but it is a good resource for someone to get a grounding to go further into the subject. I appreciate the authors putting together this book on a complex problem that is important to our industry. -- David Bartel, Houston, Texas -
Quantifying Uncertainty in Subsurface Systems
Jef Caers, Celine Scheidt, Lewis Li
- American geophysical union
- 8 Mai 2018
- 9781119325864
Under the Earth's surface is a rich array of geological resources, many with potential use to humankind. However, extracting and harnessing them comes with enormous uncertainties, high costs, and considerable risks. The valuation of subsurface resources involves assessing discordant factors to produce a decision model that is functional and sustainable. This volume provides real-world examples relating to oilfields, geothermal systems, contaminated sites, and aquifer recharge. Volume highlights include: A multi-disciplinary treatment of uncertainty quantification Case studies with actual data that will appeal to methodology developers A Bayesian evidential learning framework that reduces computation and modeling time Quantifying Uncertainty in Subsurface Systems is a multidisciplinary volume that brings together five major fields: information science, decision science, geosciences, data science and computer science. It will appeal to both students and practitioners, and be a valuable resource for geoscientists, engineers and applied mathematicians. Read the Editors' Vox: https://eos.org/editors-vox/quantifying-uncertainty-about-earths-resources
Reviews, The Leading Edge, SEG, May 2020
The subsurface medium created by geologic processes is not always well understood. The data we collect in an attempt to characterize the subsurface can be incomplete and inaccurate. However, if we understand the uncertainty of our data and the models we generate from them, we can make better decisions regarding the management of subsurface resources. Modeling and managing subsurface resources, and properly characterizing and understanding the uncertainties, requires the integration of a variety of scientific and engineering disciplines. Five case studies are outlined in the introductory chapter, which are used to demonstrate various methods throughout the book. The second chapter introduces the basic notions in decision analysis. Uncertainty quantification is only relevant within the decision framework used. Models alone do not quantify uncertainty, but do allow the determination of key variables that influence models and decisions. Next, an overview of the various data science methods relevant to uncertainty quantification in the subsurface is provided. Sensitivity analysis is then covered, specifically Monte Carlo-based sensitivity analysis. The next three chapters develop the Bayesian approach to uncertainty quantification, and this is the focus of the book. All of this is brought together in Chapter 8, which describes a solution regarding quantifying the uncertainties for each of the problems presented in the first chapter. The authors admit that it is not the only solution. No single solution fits all problems of uncertainty quantification. The results in this chapter allow the reader to see the previously described methods applied and how choices influence models and decisions. The final two chapters discuss various software components necessary to implement the strategies presented in the book and challenges faced in the future of uncertainty quantification. The book uses a number of relevant subsurface problems to explore the various aspects of uncertainty quantification. Understanding uncertainty, and how it affects modeling and decision outcomes, is not always straightforward. However, it is necessary in order to make good, consistent decisions. The book is not an easy read. Some portions require good mathematical understanding of the underlying principles. However, the book is well documented and organized. I would say that is not a good book for a beginner, but it is a good resource for someone to get a grounding to go further into the subject. I appreciate the authors putting together this book on a complex problem that is important to our industry. -- David Bartel, Houston, Texas
